Nigeria’s annual average inflation rate is projected to fall to 15.6 per cent in 2026 and 14.7 per cent in 2027, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The forecast represents a significant decline from the estimated 23 per cent average recorded in 2025.
Coronation Research said exchange rate stability and increased domestic refining capacity are expected to help ease price pressures. These developments could reduce costs across supply chains and moderate inflation affecting businesses and households.
However, analysts warned that rising energy and fertiliser costs, alongside election-related spending, could slow the pace of inflation reduction. High production expenses and food insecurity also remain major concerns for households.
The IMF also projects Nigeria’s gross domestic product to grow by 4.2 per cent in 2026 and 4.3 per cent in 2027. The expected expansion is linked to ongoing foreign exchange reforms and stronger performance in the non-oil sector.
Coronation Asset Management broadly supported the projections, estimating that annual average inflation would reach 14.56 per cent in 2027. The firm said economic reforms and expanded domestic refining operations could support a gradual moderation in prices, despite persistent structural challenges.
Nigeria has experienced high inflation in recent years, driven by foreign exchange volatility, economic imbalances and disruptions to global supply chains. Government policy measures, including foreign exchange market adjustments and efforts to boost non-oil production, have aimed to restore price stability and strengthen the naira.
The report added that increased domestic refining capacity could reduce dependence on imported energy and help moderate fuel and transportation costs. However, higher agricultural input costs, supply disruptions and fiscal pressures remain risks to the projected decline in inflation.
