There are indications that airfares may rise in the coming weeks following a sharp increase in the cost of aviation fuel, commonly referred to as Jet A1. The spike is already putting pressure on airline operations and signalling higher ticket costs for passengers.
The surge in Jet A1 prices is largely due to the crisis in the Middle East, which has slowed crude oil production and movement across countries, increasing operational costs for domestic carriers. Aviation fuel, previously sold between N900 and N995 per litre, has jumped to between N2,500 and N2,700 depending on delivery location, significantly raising airlines’ cost burden.
Airline operators are monitoring developments and have indicated that airfares could double if the trend continues. Aviation fuel now accounts for roughly 30 to 45 per cent of total operational costs, becoming the largest single expense in recent weeks.
United Nigeria Airlines spokesperson Chibuike Uloka urged the Federal Competition and Consumer Protection Commission (FCCPC) to engage airlines on sustainable ticket pricing amid rising costs. He noted that despite fuel prices exceeding N2,000 per litre, many carriers are maintaining fares at around N195,000, but warned this is unlikely to be sustainable if fuel reaches N3,000 per litre.
It was reported that Nigeria has been unable to produce sufficient crude oil for the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, forcing imports. Crude prices have risen from $65–$69 to about $112 per barrel, further increasing the cost of aviation fuel.
Industry expert Samuel Caulcrick projected an imminent rise in airfares, noting that the shift in cost structure has made aviation fuel the dominant cost driver. Previously, maintenance expenses were the largest component of airline spending, but the persistent fuel price hike has altered dynamics, putting greater financial pressure on operators.
Caulcrick concluded, “Before now, maintenance was the highest component of airline operation, but the continuous rise in Jet A1 prices has changed that. If fuel costs continue to increase, airfares are expected to rise by 20 to 25 per cent in the coming days.”
